Major trade union showdown
inevitable!
The proposed strike must also be viewed in today’s
political context. For many years now, the JVP was content to play
second fiddle to successive governments of the Peoples’ Alliance (PA)
and the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The rationale behind
this thinking was that the major opposition party, the United National
Party (UNP) was their common enemy. The JVP does not think so any more
 The
week to come will test the government’s resolve to the utmost as the
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) plans to stage a general strike on
Thursday, the first such major trade union action since the now infamous
July 1980 strike.
There have already been comparisons between the impending trade union
action and the July ’80 strike, not merely because of the month they are
being staged in, but also because of fears that Thursday’s strikers
would be dealt with in the same manner.
The July 1980 strike did cripple the country for a while but, former
President J.R. Jayewardene, then at the height of his power, crushed it
ruthlessly sacking all those who participated in the trade union action,
establishing a deterrent that was effective for a considerable period of
time since then.
Ground conditions however have changed significantly since 1980 and the
government will no doubt take due note of them in deciding its response
to the planned agitation on Thursday.
President Jayewardene in 1980 was in absolute control with an
unprecedented five-sixths parliamentary majority at his disposal.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa does not enjoy that kind of luxury. His
Parliamentary majority, at the best of times, has been wafer thin and
the last budget was passed only because the JVP abstained from voting
against it for tactical reasons.
The President has resorted to the twin strategies of appeasing the
public through his unparalleled war effort, while at the same time
placating the politicians with plum ministerial portfolios numbering
over a hundred. So far, this has paid off and President Rajapaksa has
been able to hold on to the reins of power but there is no denying that,
at times, the degree of his authority has been tenuous.
The 1980 strike was also held at a time when the Sri Lankan economy was
booming in the aftermath of the economic liberalisation policies adopted
by the Jayewardene government after years of stagnation. The same cannot
be said of the current economic situation in the country though, with
inflation spiraling out of control partly due to poor economic
management and partly because of a global food and fuel crisis.
In fact, the principal demand of the strike planned for Thursday is a
pay hike of five thousand rupees for government employees. Economists
say that with a state workforce of 1.2 million, such an increase would
cost the state a staggering Rs.72 billion annually-and spending that
amount of funds at this stage was simply not feasible for the Treasury.
The government has offered a pay hike of a thousand rupees, but this has
been flatly rejected by the National Trade Union Centre (NTUC), the JVP-affiliated
body representing the unions that propose to stage the strike. Instead,
the NTUC has put forward its own demands to call off the strike.
These demands, which include pruning the cabinet to 30 ministers,
calling off the provincial council elections in the North Central and
Sabaragamuwa provinces and the immediate implementation of the 17th
amendment to the Constitution will obviously not be met; hence a
showdown is on the cards.
The proposed strike must also be viewed in today’s political context.
For many years now, the JVP was content to play second fiddle to
successive governments of the Peoples’ Alliance (PA) and the United
Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The rationale behind this thinking was
that the major opposition party, the United National Party (UNP) was
their common enemy. The JVP does not think so any more.
The reasons for this change of stance are many. And, not the least of
them is the defection of the Wimal Weerawansa faction from the JVP,
which has now formed its own Jathika Nidahas Peramuna (JNP). Weerawansa
was known to have a close rapport with President Rajapaksa and the
mainstream JVP now alleges that he was only doing Rajapaksa’s bidding
from within the JVP.
With Weerawansa’s exit from the JVP, the more radical forces within the
party have come to the fore and they do not see a need to pussy foot
around the Rajapaksa administration anymore. The JVP has also come to
realise that criticising the Rajapaksa regime from public platforms and
then tacitly supporting its survival in Parliament has led to a
significant erosion of its credibility in the eyes of the public.
Also the JVP, which has never had a stable vote base unlike the UNP or
the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), needs to test its strength in the
electorate after more than a decade in democratic politics after their
aborted insurrection in the late eighties. The need for this is even
more now, as Weerawansa and his JNP have parted company with the JVP.
This is as good an opportunity as any for the JVP to do so, considering
also the plight of the UNP at present, preoccupied as it is with the
twin issues of a leadership challenge to Ranil Wickremasinghe and the
upcoming elections in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces.
In that sense, it is not only the JVP that will be tested, but also the
UNP. The UNP did organise several public protests against the government
also on the issue of the rising cost of living but none of these
campaigns were an unqualified success. In fact, some of the campaign,
such as travelling in bullock carts to protest fuel price hikes even
boomeranged on the party.
Therefore, if the JVP can muster a significant show of strength on
Thursday, it will send a new political signal to the Rajapaksa regime -
that its friend turned foe is a force to be reckoned with. Whether the
government will have the political strength and courage to counter that
force with equal or even greater force is the question that awaits an
answer on Thursday.
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