A wake-up call for the UNP
There is a school of thought that the party can
never win as long Wickremesinghe is at the helm. They cite
Wickremesinghe’s poor public image, his tendency to be Colombo-centric
in choosing his close advisors, and his laidback style of campaigning as
reasons for this. These strategies, combined with Wickremesinghe’s
conviction that the LTTE must be dealt with politically rather than
militarily, has proved lethal for the UNP, they argue. There may be some
merit in that contention, but if the party were to get rid of
Wickremesinghe, it would have a leadership struggle on its hands. A
three-cornered tussle would see Rukman Senanayake, S.B. Dissanayake and
Sajith Premadasa all in the fray, each having their respective merits
and de-merits
 Where
to, from here? That is the question the opposition United National Party
(UNP) must be asking itself after yet another election defeat at the
provincial council polls in the North Central and Sabaragamuwa Provinces
last week.
Despite the run up to the elections being marred by bloody and brutal
violence, the poll itself was relatively peaceful. Indeed, most
opposition parties have been muted in their criticism of what transpired
on election day, focussing instead on pre-election violence, and the
abuse of state resources for the campaign.
If anything, the elections must serve as a wake-up call for the UNP. The
party was beaten convincingly, highlighting the fact that its grassroots
level organisation is inept and ineffective, especially in regions not
dominated by a large urban population.
It is true that the government used the ‘war’ card. Vote for the United
People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and support the campaign against the
Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), was what the ruling party said.
That campaign theme may not be relevant to the running of the provincial
administrations, but the message struck a chord, as the results so
obviously showed.
Amidst the many dark clouds for the UNP, there was one silver lining:
both of its chief ministerial candidates, General Janaka Perera and film
star Ranjan Ramanayake, topped the preference vote lists, outnumbering
the two former chief ministers in their respective provinces.
That must be a feather in UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe’s cap, for his
decision to nominate two greenhorns as chief ministerial aspirants came
in for much criticism, even within the UNP. But, it is also a reflection
of the low popularity enjoyed by the former chief ministers.
Nevertheless, the UNP has already begun its now familiar routine: hold a
post-mortem on the polls and then call for Wickremesinghe to resign. It
is indeed a sorry state for the country’s single largest political party
to be in.
Demanding Wickremesinghe’s head is a convenient exercise. But, what
those who matter in the party should ask themselves is whether sacking
Wickremesinghe will resolve all ills. To believe that this is so is to
be as fanciful as to wish that victory would be theirs at the next
general election, just because the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime is presiding
over a period of economic despondency.
Wickremesinghe admittedly has his minuses – and quite a few of them too.
He is not the most articulate of public speakers and his platform style
is open to ridicule. In the past, he has lacked judgement in choosing
his close associates, most of whom have betrayed him and are now sitting
pretty in Rajapaksa’s cabinet.
But even his harshest critics concede that a shrewd political animal
lurks behind that bumbling, bungling façade. He is a man with a vision
for the country, and a man with a clean slate after being in politics
for 30 years, no mean feat. Ironically, Wickremesinghe is the type of
man who would make a great leader of a nation – but a pedestrian leader
of the opposition, as recent events testify.
For the UNP though, Wickremesinghe presents a peculiar problem. There is
a school of thought that the party can never win as long Wickremesinghe
is at the helm. They cite Wickremesinghe’s poor public image, his
tendency to be Colombo-centric in choosing his close advisors, and his
laidback style of campaigning as reasons for this. These strategies,
combined with Wickremesinghe’s conviction that the LTTE must be dealt
with politically rather than militarily, has proved lethal for the UNP,
they argue.
There may be some merit in that contention, but if the party were to get
rid of Wickremesinghe, it would have a leadership struggle on its hands.
A three-cornered tussle would see Rukman Senanayake, S.B. Dissanayake
and Sajith Premadasa all in the fray, each having their respective
merits and de-merits.
Senanayake is after all, a Senanayake and the grandson of the ‘Father of
the Nation.’ But his experience in government is limited and in public
is even more reticent than Wickremesinghe. How he will fare, if he is
pitted against President Rajapaksa, leaves little to the imagination.
Dissanayake is a natural politician and could counter Rajapaksa well,
but he is encumbered by the loss of his civic rights which only
Rajapaksa himself can restore. Besides, many longstanding UNPers still
see him as an outsider, and his continuing rapport with the President
means that his bona fides will always be viewed with suspicion.
Premadasa is, in a sense, more suited than either Dissanayake or
Senanayake, and has already earned kudos for his hard work in Hambantota.
But, being in his early forties, will find that most party members are
older and more senior than him. To wield the reins of leadership in such
circumstances would not be the easiest of tasks.
These issues notwithstanding, it seems the UNP inquisition has begun.
The familiar rabble rousers – Lakshman Seneviratne and Johnston Fernando
foremost among them – have again called for party reforms and a change
of leadership, touting a Sonia Gandhi-style ‘senior advisor’ role for
Wickremesinghe.
Wickremesinghe, unlike Gandhi, has been an active politician all his
adult life, and has been twice Prime Minister and is unlikely to rise to
the bait. So, what the nearly five million voters who voted for the UNP
at the last presidential election can now expect to see is more haggling
for the party leadership.
And embroiled as the UNP is in its own internal conflicts, it is
unlikely to emerge as the political giant it once was – not in the next
few months anyway. President Rajapaksa may well cash in on the UNP’s
discomfiture, and we can confidently await more provincial polls soon.
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