Return of the rebels:
A million dollar question for the UNP
 Until then, there was a public show of mistrust between the two,
with Wickremesinghe avoiding or ignoring his erstwhile deputy whenever
they met at public functions. But the ice seemed to have been broken
when Jayasuriya was taken ill and had to undergo major surgery. The
rapprochement between the two, ignited the hope that the UNP dissidents
could yet be persuaded to return to the Opposition. But this would
entail more than just ending the estrangement between Wickremesinghe and
Jayasuriya. There are many bones of contention between the dissidents
and the UNP leader and some of them at least appear to have tarnished
their relationship with Wickremesinghe irrevocably, even though there
are no permanent friends or enemies in politics-only permanent interests
After a lull of several weeks, the Opposition United National Party (UNP)
is awash with speculation once again, now over reports that at least
some of the seventeen ‘rebels’ who joined the Government were seeking a
re-entry to the party having been disgruntled at the treatment meted out
to them by the ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA).
The UNP hierarchy has not been averse to keeping the channels of
communication open, with the dissident UNPers serving in the Cabinet for
some time now. But what really fuelled the rumours was the meeting
Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe had with the leader of the UNP
‘rebels,’ Karu Jayasuriya while the latter was recuperating after
surgery at a private hospital.
Until then, there was a public show of mistrust between the two, with
Wickremesinghe avoiding or ignoring his erstwhile deputy whenever they
met at public functions. But the ice seemed to have been broken when
Jayasuriya was taken ill and had to undergo major surgery. The
rapprochement between the two ignited the hope that the UNP dissidents
could yet be persuaded to return to the Opposition.But this would entail
more than just ending the estrangement between Wickremesinghe and
Jayasuriya.
There are many bones of contention between the dissidents and the UNP
leader and some of them at least appear to have tarnished their
relationship with Wickremesinghe irrevocably, even though there are no
permanent friends or enemies in politics-only permanent interests.
It must be noted that the dissidents left the party, ostensibly because
the UNP leader was stalling changes to the party constitution that
allowed for internal democracy-which translates into an euphemism for
sanctioning procedures that would have seen the ouster of Wickremesinghe
as the UNP leader.
But the crossover came at the most inopportune moment. It was only in
October 2006 that the UNP and the ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)
had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Many saw the MOU as
Wickremesinghe’s lifeline to surviving in his own party, but just three
months later in January 2007, Jayasuriya and his rebels accepted cabinet
portfolios and crossed-over.
It was really a coup de grace engineered by the Government’s
powerbrokers, that severely eroded the UNP’s strength in Parliament as
well as its credibility in the eyes of the electorate. It also left
questions about the reasons for the crossover because among those who
crossed over were the likes of Jayasuriya, who were previously noted for
their principles even in the murky world of politics.
Much has happened since January 2007 and now. The UNP aligned itself
with the breakaway SLFP (M) faction, but still lost key provincial
elections that have further diminished the party’s prospects at any
future polls. Wickremesinghe is even now embroiled in a battle for
survival with a new group of dissidents such as Lakshman Seneviratne and
Johnston Fernando. The UNP’s future, at best, is unpredictable.
Rebels
Against this backdrop, any rebels returning to the fold would be most
welcome for the UNP. That would rejuvenate the party’s image and put an
end to the idea that rats are deserting a sinking ship. But even so,
this is easier said than done, and there are many factors that would
work against the ‘rebels’ simply returning to the party.
Firstly, while some of those who joined the Government-Jayasuriya for
instance-have made it a point not to be personally critical of
Wickremesinghe, others, Rajitha Senaratne, for example, have been
vitriolic in their criticisms of the UNP leader. As such, there are some
reservations in the party about allowing the latter group to return to
the ranks.
Then, in the absence of the rebels, a new second rung leadership has
sprung up. With the announcement of changes in the party that would
include a deputy leader and an assistant leader, there has been a
scramble for this second tier. Any return of Jayasuriya and his rebels
would jeopardise the chances of this ‘second XI’ who would therefore
naturally resist this move.
Dilemma
The difficulties are not confined to the UNP itself. The rebels
themselves would be in a dilemma. They already enjoy the perks and
privileges of power. Some of them enjoy plum portfolios even if others
don’t. For such individuals, it is a moot point whether they should
sacrifice that to return to a party which, judging by all indications,
is not on the ascendancy in the popularity ratings.
But for the rebels, remaining in the UPFA Government also has its
pitfalls. They know that a general elections is due soon, the latest
being April 2010, less than two years away. Therefore, how they obtain
nominations to contest that poll looms large in any decision they would
be taken with regard to returning to the UNP.
On paper, they have three options: contesting independently, contesting
from the UPFA, or returning to the UNP and contesting from their former
party. The first option is risky given the electorate’s tendency to vote
for one of the major parties, and in the latter two options, obtaining
nominations from either the UPFA or the UNP would be tricky for the
rebels, with the exception of a few individuals.
The stage is therefore set for some intense politicking in the coming
months when the UNP would try to re-assert itself as a worthy
opposition. The rebels certainly didn’t figure in discussions Opposition
Leader Wickremesinghe had with President Mahinda Rajapaksa on Friday,
because for now, it is all back room brokering within what is still
arguably the country’s single largest political party.
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