General Elections 2009; a
distinct possibility
Clearly, the war effort in the North has had an impact on voter
sentiment. The Government’s main slogan has been a plea to the voter to
allow it to continue to be in power, so the war could be pursued to a
finish. It is a plea that resonates with the southern electorate much
more than the Opposition’s appeals for a political settlement to the
ethnic issue.
It is also a strategy that has been extremely useful in the face of
mounting economic uncertainty, where a global credit crunch and
recession has led to a spiralling cost of living in this country,
further aggravated by a spate of court decisions reducing tariffs and
prices in vital sectors of the economy
 Last
week saw a momentous moment in Sri Lanka’s war against terror. The city
of Kilinochchi was liberated sparking national celebrations and
signifying that the Eelam war was being prosecuted to a finish.
The significance of the fall of Kilinochchi was described by many
analysts as being the hub of operations for the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It was the de-facto capital of the terrorists and
the centre from which they administered the areas under their control.
In that sense, and from its central and strategic location, it was a key
town to win control of.
But the fall of Kilinochchi has other implications as well. The
political fallout of this military victory cannot be discounted, as the
ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and the main opposition
parties, the United National Party (UNP) and the Janatha Vimukthi
Peramuna (JVP) jostle for power.
The bone of contention here is the General Election which must be held
by April 2010-fifteen months hence. There has been speculation for some
time now that the Poll will be brought forward by President Mahinda
Rajapaksa, who will be keen to reap the maximum benefit of his
popularity in the aftermath of the military victories.
Nevertheless, it is not a decision that can be taken with merely that
consideration. That is because unlike one year ago, the President now
does command a stable majority in Parliament albeit with the support of
defectors from the UNP and the JVP. This was amply demonstrated at the
budget vote in 2008 where the Government romped home comfortably, unlike
in 2007 when it was subjected to an acid test at each stage of the vote.
Thus far, the ruling party’s strategy has been to hold Provincial
Council elections instead, winning comfortably in the Eastern, North
Central and Sabaragamuwa provinces already, and bracing themselves for
Polls in the Central and North Western provinces in a few weeks time.
It has been a successful ploy. Not only does the UPFA regain power in
the provinces, it also succeeds in depleting the financial resources of
the collective opposition. And, each time the ruling party registers a
victory, it demoralises the Opposition and strengthens the public
perception that the Opposition is now incapable of winning elections and
that the ruling party is on a roll.
Clearly, the war effort in the North has had an impact on voter
sentiment. The Government’s main slogan has been a plea to the voter to
allow it to continue to be in power, so the war could be pursued to a
finish. It is a plea that resonates with the southern electorate much
more than the Opposition’s appeals for a political settlement to the
ethnic issue.
It is also a strategy that has been extremely useful in the face of
mounting economic uncertainty, where a global credit crunch and
recession has led to a spiralling cost of living in this country,
further aggravated by a spate of court decisions reducing tariffs and
prices in vital sectors of the economy.
The latter in particular dented the Government’s popularity, resulting
in the authorities deciding that it would take on the courts of law;
hence, the decision not to implement the price reduction on petrol
ordered by the Supreme Court, a stand-off that is still continuing.
What the ruling party fears, is that the economic war would escalate
beyond control over the next fifteen months- so much so that the
electorate will forget the spoils of war and vote with one look at their
purse strings. After all, George Bush (Snr.) revelled in the glory of a
gush of American patriotic fervour after winning the first Gulf War, but
lost his bid for re-election as the economy went into a nosedive.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa would not wish for such a scenario in Sri
Lanka, which is why some of his advisors are urging him to go for early
Polls. The Polls after all, won’t alter his fate - his first term ends
only in 2011.
Last week’s decision to ban the LTTE is yet another signal that the
Government has one eye cast on the mood of the Sri Lankan voter. The
ban, for all practical purposes, is a cosmetic exercise, the only
practical implication being that it rules out the possibility of
negotiating with the Tigers.
But this has not happened for the past few years, there is no
inclination for peace talks right now as the military makes headway each
day in the theatre of conflict, and even the Opposition is compelled to
compliment the military victories for fear of antagonising the southern
voter. And anyway, if there was a window of opportunity to secure a
worthwhile deal with the LTTE, the ban could be revoked at anytime.
The Opposition, therefore, is trapped in a difficult situation. The more
military victories the Government achieves, the more perilous its
predicament becomes, but at the same time it dare not speak against the
war for it would evoke the wrath of the south. Its only hope for a
reversal of its fortunes is the ruling party’s relative inefficiency in
managing the economy.
President Rajapaksa obviously will bide his time for as long as he can,
before calling for General Elections. Right now, it is more likely to be
later rather than sooner because Provincial Polls in the Western, Uva
and Southern provinces are next on the cards, before a National Poll.
Nevertheless a General Election in 2009 appears a distinct possibility.
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