Country lacks a strong opposition
 All this is not to say that Ranil Wickremesinghe will someday
salvage the UNP. If he is to do it, he needs a makeover too- both in
policy, grassroots electoral strategies and in what he says and does in
public. The UNP must evolve a cohesive strategy for the nation, that
would seek to optimise- and not criticise the military gains of the
government. It must be in tune with the nationalist sentiments in the
south, while preserving the advantage of traditionally being perceived
as minority friendly. Then, it must also kick start its’ grassroots
organisations, which are now wracked with divisions and battles for
preference votes. Wickremesinghe himself could do with a few tips on how
to conduct himself in public, so that, he would not be a source of
embarrassing video footage for the State media. It will be a long road
ahead, but the UNP can take heart from the many chinks in the UPFA’s
armour: allegations of corruption, wasteful expenditure on a mega
Cabinet and an economic downturn as well.
For the Grand Old Party of Sri Lankan politics, the United National
Party (UNP), it has been another election, another defeat and now,
another call for the resignation of party leader and Leader of the
Opposition Ranil Wickremesinghe.When the party’s Parliamentary group met
in the aftermath of the resounding defeat at the Central and North
Western Provincial Council elections, there was a chorus of voices
demanding Wickremesinghe’s scalp. The thrust of their argument was that,
Wickremesinghe is no longer a marketable commodity; hence, he should go.
Taking Wickremesinghe to task were the ‘usual suspects’, the likes of
S.B. Dissanayake, Johnston Fernando, Dr. Jayalath Jayawardena, Lakshman
Seneviratne and Thalatha Athukorale. This is not a list that raises
eyebrows-except that, they were joined by a quite vehement Sajith
Premadasa.
Later, at a party event, Wickremasinghe asserted that, there was a
concerted attempt by the ruling party to destroy the UNP. He declared
that, while the Government may succeed in roping in a few UNPers
disgruntled with staying in the Opposition for a long period of time,
the UNP itself would survive.
Divide and rule
Of course, dividing the Opposition is a time tested strategy for any
government. Wickremesinghe’s uncle, J.R. Jayewardene (JR), divided the
Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) systematically. The deprivation of Sirima
Bandaranaike’s civic rights, lead to a power struggle, and Maithripala
Senanayake staked his claim for the leadership.
Soon, there was a SLFP (S) faction and SLFP (M) faction, and they were
battling it out in court for the control of the party’s Darley Road
headquarters. Then, there was the offshoot Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya (SLMP)
lead by Ms. Banadaranaike’s estranged son-in-law, Vijaya Kumaratunga-and
they were all merrily at each others’ throats!
There is a lesson in that for the younger brigade in the UNP. That was a
time when the prophets of doom were saying their eulogies for the SLFP.
Many thought that the end was nigh for the party founded by S.W.R.D.
Bandaranaike. Instead, it has now been in power for 12 of the last 15
years- and wreaking havoc with the UNP.
If JR assiduously pursued his strategy of ‘divide and rule’ with the
SLFP, then Mahinda Rajapaksa has perfected it to an art form. Not only
has he divided the UNP, he has also succeeded in dividing the two groups
that staged insurgencies in this country-the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)
and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)!
Ranil’s removal is not a panacea
Those who are clamouring for change in the UNP- especially
Wickremesinghe’s removal- appear to believe that, dismissing the Leader
of the party and appointing someone else will be the magic mantra that
would return it to power once again. This is where the UNP appears to be
erring.
There are two fundamental flaws in this argument. Firstly, while
Wickremesinghe himself has a plethora of faults, he is not the reason
why the UNP is losing. The United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and
President Mahinda Rajapaksa are on a roll, their popularity bolstered by
the war effort in the North. The UNP dissidents must realise this.
It is true that Ranil Wickremesinghe entered into a ceasefire with the
LTTE. How the Tigers abused that ceasefire is now emerging in
battlefield footage from the North- each picture is a slap in
Wickremesinghe’s face. But, the UNP can do precious little about that
now.
Headless body?
After the 1977 election and JR’s sweeping victory, it was said that, had
the UNP fielded a cadjan branch as a candidate, it would have won (‘UNP
eken polpiththak demmath dinanawa’). The situation is similar now for
the UPFA. The tide is now firmly in favour of the Alliance- and the UNP
must bide its’ time till that passes.
Secondly, there is no charismatic personality in the UNP that can take
full control of the party and turn it around. Of the would be
contenders, Karu Jayasuriya was the most credible alternative-mature,
honest and comfortable with the masses- but his crossover to the
government, has put paid to any chances of UNP leadership.
Of the others, S.B. Dissanayake is the most vociferous, often waxing
eloquent of his presidential ambitions. The man has his merits- and
tremendous organisational capability- but he lost his Hanguranketha seat
at the Central Provincial polls by a huge margin of over 10,000 votes.
If anything, that should prove the argument that the UNP votes are at a
trough- and that, very few people can do anything about it.
Then there is Sajith Premadasa. The younger Premadasa will certainly
benefit from the services rendered by his father, but that legacy could
be a political liability as well. If and when he dons the leadership
mantle of the UNP, we can picture the UPFA propagandists going to town
on the minuses of the Premadasa era.
Sajith is certainly leadership material. But, being in his early 40s, he
would do well to reflect on how his father played second fiddle to JR;
being a young man in a hurry may not be the best option for him at this
point in time.
All this is not to say that Ranil Wickremesinghe will someday salvage
the UNP. If he is to do it, he needs a makeover too- both in policy,
grassroots electoral strategies and in what he says and does in public.
The UNP must evolve a cohesive strategy for the nation, that would seek
to optimise- and not criticise the military gains of the government. It
must be in tune with the nationalist sentiments in the south, while
preserving the advantage of traditionally being perceived as minority
friendly.
Then, it must also kick start its’ grassroots organizations, which are
now wracked with divisions and battles for preference votes.
Wickremesinghe himself could do with a few tips on how to conduct
himself in public, so that, he would not be a source of embarrassing
video footage for the State media.
It will be a long road ahead, but the UNP can take heart from the many
chinks in the UPFA’s armour: allegations of corruption, wasteful
expenditure on a mega Cabinet and an economic downturn as well.
The results will not materialise in the short term, and may not be
evident at the next general election itself- but then, the country needs
a strong Opposition, for that will, in turn, lead to a better
government, and that is what this nation needs at this juncture.
**** |
