Leadership struggle
within the kraal
 Most
students of politics will agree that, the Government of Mahinda
Rajapaksa is on a roll, because of its’ successful prosecution
of the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE). It is a feat that no other government or leader
has achieved in the last 25 years- and the masses are keen to
show their gratitude by keeping faith with Rajapaksa, not only
at the Provincial polls, but at the upcoming General elections
as well. This is likely to be so, no matter who leads the UNP |
The circus that is now the United National Party (UNP) is,
apparently, going from one performance to another - this week saw the
umpteenth leadership struggle to oust Opposition Leader Ranil
Wickremesinghe, and the appointment of yet another committee, to try and
sort out the resulting mess.
From what transpired during the course of this week, only two issues are
certain. Firstly, Ranil Wickremesinghe is hell bent on staying put, no
matter what. Secondly, his detractors within the party, do not seem to
tire of trying to usurp his position, even if their attempts are causing
serious damage to the UNP’s credibility and vote base.
This has now become a familiar and vicious cycle. The party loses an
election, the ‘usual suspects’ want Wickremesinghe ousted, the entire
hierarchy of the UNP is involved in a grand brawl, forgetting the
campaign for the next election and then, the party promptly suffers an
even worse defeat at the subsequent poll!
Is Ranil the Jonah?
We need to examine certain presumptions here. It does appear that
Wickremesinghe’s critics believe that, all the party’s tribulations flow
from Wickremesinghe. Hence, their thinking is that, removing
Wickremesinghe will be a panacea for all ills. The reality, however, is
different.
Most students of politics will agree that, the Government of Mahinda
Rajapaksa is on a roll, because of its’ successful prosecution of the
war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It is a feat
that no other government or leader has achieved in the last 25 years-
and the masses are keen to show their gratitude, by keeping faith with
Rajapaksa, not only in the Provincial polls, but at the upcoming General
elections as well.
This is likely to be so, no matter who leads the UNP. In that sense, the
party would be better off, in the long run, in retaining Wickremesinghe
for now. Those supporting this argument, point out that, if
Wickremasinghe is ousted and a new leader installed, his successor is
also likely to suffer the same fate as Wickremesinghe- of being soundly
defeated at the next major election. What then would be the plight of
the UNP?
That certainly is a convincing theory, although there are those who
believe that, the impending economic downturn in the country is likely
to cause an erosion in the popularity of President Rajapaksa and his
United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government.
This is no doubt possible, but it is hard to believe that it would be of
sufficient magnitude to hurt the UPFA’s or Rajapaksa’s chances,
especially, considering that the publicity gurus of the Alliance, market
Rajapaksa and the war effort particularly well.
Hobsons choice
Next, we must examine the possible contenders for Wickremesinghe’s
mantle. The frontrunners are Karu Jayasuriya, S.B. Dissanayake, Rukman
Senanayake and Sajith Premadasa, in no particular order- and that is
part of the problem.
They all have their liabilities, and there is no clear heir apparent
with a charisma that could sway the masses and turn the tide in the
manner that Chandrika Kumaratunge did for the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)
in the early ’90s.
Karu J. has forever blotted his copybook by betraying the party for a
portfolio in the Rajapaksa administration, while Dissanayake will always
be viewed with suspicion, because of his SLFP roots and his continuing
friendship with Rajapaksa.
Rukman Senanayake has not proved himself as an able organiser or leader
at national level, while Sajith Premadasa, like Senanayake, has little
more than a name and a heritage, which does not automatically guarantee
political success- as Anura Bandaranaike would have gleefully told them.
Given that, there is no clear heir apparent to Wickremesinghe, and
considering the vehemence with which the Leader of the Opposition’s
ouster is being demanded ad nauseum, the suspicion, therefore, lingers
as to whether this leadership race is more a battle between these
aspirants to get to the top, rather than a genuine exercise to get the
party on the right track.
A necessary evil?
From a purely UNP perspective, that merits the question as to whether
Ranil Wickremesinghe needs to be retained at all cost. Certainly, there
is ample evidence to suggest that Wickremesinghe’s laid back,
lackadaisical and city-centric style of party management has not been
the best, and has led to many a problem at the regional and grassroots
levels.
These tactics will have to be revamped- and also requiring a drastic
overhaul is the party’s overall policy and attitude towards the ethnic
question. Events have proven that Wickremesinghe’s conciliatory and
liberal stance towards the LTTE has wreaked havoc, allowing the Tigers
to regroup and re-arm during the cease-fire he engineered.
Therefore, Wickremesinghe would need to say mea culpa before the
electorate, if the masses are to trust him with the reins of the nation
again. Whether the Leader of the Opposition is ready for such an
entreaty is, of course, a different question.
At present, the political grapevine is abuzz with Wickremesinghe being
appointed the ‘Senior Leader’, while another, most probably Karu
Jayasuriya, being appointed the ‘UNP leader’. In such a scenario, the
crunch will come in the division of powers between the two- which will
be decided upon by a committee, which, on paper, appears to be
favourable to Wickremesinghe.
In the meantime, the UNP has all but forgotten the Western Provincial
Council (WPC) election, where it faces another certain drubbing. In that
context, if anything valuable is to emerge out of the latest attempts to
sideline Wickremesinghe, the committee appointed by the UNP, to sort out
the leadership issue, would do well to also take a policy decision that
there would be no further discussions on the leadership issue, in the
aftermath of the WPC poll as well!
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