This is my Nation

Election time is here again!

But the one overriding factor in the election will be the end of the Eelam War. The nation is still in the throes of euphoria following the armed forces’ decisive victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the biggest commodity the ruling party has these days is none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa. This by no means suggests that the rest of the President’s mega cabinet share an equal slice of the popularity but there is no denying the fact that the President could turn the tide on his own, by simply reminding Uva voters of the recent military victories in the North during his campaign for the polls

It is elections galore as the country comes to terms with the end of the Eelam war and the latest contest up for grabs is the Uva provincial council, elections which will be held on August 8, perhaps not co-incidentally the same day on which polls are being held for the local authorities in Jaffna and Vavuniya.

It is perhaps fair to pose the question as to whether any purpose will be served by the Uva provincial poll, with the ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) likely to emerge winners by a clear and handsome margin.

Still, the elections must be held and with it emerges the prospect of a few turf wars and intra-party rivalries, not to mention the possibility of the poll being used as a dress rehearsal for greater electoral battles that lie ahead.

Traditionally, the Uva province has been a stronghold of the United National Party (UNP). Even at the 2005 presidential poll, the Badulla district voted in favour of UNP candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe even though the Moneragala district with a lesser population opted for Mahinda Rajapaksa.

In fact, at one previous election when the UNP lost elsewhere throughout the country, the one electoral district it could muster a win was at Mahiyangana, the stronghold of Lakshman Seneviratne. Today though, that status is questionable with Seneviratne himself at the centre of a reforms row within the UNP.

Pitted against the UNP are the likes of high-profile Health Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva and Dilan Perera. Minister de Silva is in the news these days for all the wrong reasons but no one disputes that he has used his cabinet portfolio to the maximum to serve the needs of his constituents. And that too may eventually reflect in the election results.

But the one overriding factor in the election will be the end of the Eelam War. The nation is still in the throes of euphoria following the armed forces’ decisive victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the biggest commodity the ruling party has these days is none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

This by no means suggests that the rest of the President’s mega cabinet share an equal slice of the popularity but there is no denying the fact that the President could turn the tide on his own, by simply reminding Uva voters of the recent military victories in the North during his campaign for the polls.

This is a very likely scenario, especially because the President is now free to personally campaign for the election because security concerns about his safety - although they must remain high - aren’t as great as they were during the height of the Eelam war.
In such circumstances, one must spare a thought for the opposition most notably the UNP. The party ended with egg over its collective faces after denouncing the war effort only to find the military succeeding spectacularly and against all odds and expectations.

Now some members such as Lakshman Seneviratne and Sajith Premadasa have taken a meaningful first step by hailing the military victories. But, the ‘Kilinochchiya-Medawachchiya’ and ‘Alimankada-Pamankada’ jibes strike a chord with the general public which still perceive the UNP to have been caught wrong-footed on the issue of the war.

Also, no one in the UNP, least of all its leadership, has been courageous enough to publicly acknowledge this, admit that the party erred on the issue and come clean. Even at this late stage some leading stalwarts insist that the ceasefire agreement with the Tigers was a productive exercise and that is only providing more ammunition for the Alliance. Therefore, even if the Uva province was once a traditional stronghold of the UNP, that claim is likely to be severely tested at the upcoming election.

If the UNP’s plight is unenviable, then that of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) is worse. The party’s stance was that the LTTE should be dealt with militarily and defeated and this exactly is what the government has done.

Faced therefore with the lack of an issue to contend with, the JVP has now resorted to its familiar nationalist cry - rejecting the 13th amendment to the Constitution and saying power sharing among the communities shouldn’t be that extensive.

The government or the President have not yet committed themselves to any kind of power sharing arrangement although some noises are being made about the 13th amendment and this calls into question the JVP’s main campaign slogan.

To add to the leftist party’s misery, their former comrade Wimal Weerawansa and his Jathika Nidahas Peramuna are now happily ensconced in the government ranks and will surely do most of the JVP-bashing during the campaign. The prospects for the JVP are therefore dim indeed, even in the Moneragala district where they enjoyed some support.

In such a scenario, are there any problems at all for the UPFA? Not really except a few turf wars among local politicians jostling for power, knowing that a victory at the provincial poll would give them a foothold to hitch a ride to Parliament, come the general elections which are due by April next year.

The elections will also be notable for the debut of Shashindra Rajapaksa, the first among the ranks of the third generation Rajapaksas to enter local politics. This has caused some heartburn among regional leaders, but no one would want to register their opposition strongly, given the present political climate.
As such, the Uva election will be significant, not in terms of who wins and who loses but only to determine how many votes the ‘also-rans’ polled and this may well set the trend for the elections that follow.

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