This is my Nation

Test firing of political missiles?

Now, the tables have turned, and how dramatically. Today, the Weerawansas and Ranawakas need President Rajapaksa much more than he ever needed them. Therefore, as far as supporting the President in his quest for a political solution is concerned, they hardly have a choice.
That is also why we see the UNP being very cautious now, in what it articulates with regard to a political solution. It knows that the moment it steps out of line, it will be accused of being traitors to the cause. And, once bitten by the ‘Alimankada Pamankada’ jibes, they are now
twice shy

There appears to be never a dull moment in the Sri Lankan political theatre. Just when campaigning began in earnest for the Uva Provincial polls, where one would have believed that interest would remain focussd there, events in distant Colombo began to take centre stage yet again.

The first tremors of the impending quake came in the form of announcements from the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), that it would, using all means at its disposal, oppose the 13th Amendment as a means of Devolving Power.
This obviously sent alarm bells ringing, because the JHU was a staunch ally of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA). The question that was being asked was whether the announcement was a means by which the Alliance was, in fact, communicating its unwillingness to pursue the 13th Amendment.

This theory gained some credibility, because another staunch ally of President Rajapaksa, and a key partner in the UPFA, the Wimal Weerawansa led Jathika Nidahas Peramuna (JNP), was voicing virtually the same sentiments: unequivocal opposition to the 13th Amendment.

Then came a startling turn of events. The JHU went a step further and stated that it would withdraw from the ruling coalition, if the 13th Amendment was pursued with anymore.
If there were any who waited with bated breath for a similar statement from the JNP, they were in for a rude shock: what was announced instead, was that, the JNP has been awarded two portfolios at long last!

Obviously, a lot of backroom politicking would have gone into this turn of events. Whatever the spectacle that unfolded before the public, one factor is very clear now: if there was a semblance of revolt within the Alliance, on account of the 13th Amendment, it has been effectively quelled, at least for the moment.

This was followed by the highly promising meeting on Thursday, of the Committee on Development & Reconciliation (CDR), at which, not only the JHU and the JNP, but also the United National Party (UNP), the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and even the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) participated.

The participation of all these parties at the CDR has led to optimistic proclamations of a political consensus at long last, but that is easier said than done. And one must assess the current political climate, to decipher the JHU and JNP falling in line, and the UNP being happy to participate in the CDR last week.

It is no secret that the ruling party is riding on the crest of a popularity surge now. Rightly or wrongly, that is because of the recent success of the armed forces and the annihilation of the Tigers, and the political dividends of that will accrue to the party that pursued the military agenda, not to the party that shied away from confrontation.
Of course, there are issues on which the government can be taken to task. Wastage and corruption, maintaining a mega cabinet, rising prices of essential items, a somewhat chequered record on Media freedom, are but some of the more contentious concerns being voiced.

Nevertheless, the electorate, almost as a whole, agrees that, set against the enormity of the achievement of eradicating terrorism, these questions pale into insignificance. Hence, the overwhelming popularity of the ruling party and the President.
Faced with such an avalanche of popularity - mostly, personally for President Mahinda Rajapaksa - there is little that other political parties can do. For a while, the UNP hedged its bets, tried its hand at belittling the military victories, and ended with egg on its face. Now it is backtracking furiously and trying to engage in damage control.

The JHU maybe a principled party, but the stark truth is that, it never polled enough votes on its own steam, to make a significant impact on the electoral map. Their share of the vote increased whenever there was strife among the major political parties, but now, the UPFA, sans a JHU, will hardly feel the difference.

The JNP, the breakaway faction of the JVP led by the vociferous Wimal Weerawansa, is, if at all, in a worse plight. Its electoral strength has never been tested singularly, and to say that it is negligible, would probably be kind.
The reality then, is that, while in 2005, when President Mahinda Rajapaksa contested the presidency after 11 years of Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) led rule, he needed every possible ally and alliance to eke out the 50% plus vote required to win the contest against a then formidable Ranil Wickremesinghe.

Now, the tables have turned, and how dramatically. Today, the Weerawansas and Ranawakas need President Rajapaksa much more than he ever needed them. Therefore, as far as supporting the President in his quest for a political solution is concerned, they hardly have a choice.

That is also why we see the UNP being very cautious now, in what it articulates with regard to a political solution. It knows that the moment it steps out of line, it will be accused of being traitors to the cause. And, once bitten by the ‘Alimankada Pamankada’ jibes, they are now twice shy.

In this political climate, are we to see some sort of unanimity in the search for a political solution? Despite all the popularity that the ruling party enjoys, that is unlikely, because there will always be the JVP fly in the ointment, which revels in spoiling the party and creating a discordant niche for itself.

The coming weeks will shed more light on how this political solution will evolve. But one can be quite certain that, whatever support the government now enjoys, any solution will require a gigantic effort, to finally see the light of day.

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