This is my Nation

Uva : A dress rehearsal for the bigger contests

Even though at the height of his popularity, the President is aware that fame and good fortune in politics is rather fickle and that, the UPFA needs his personal touch to succeed. Therefore, the hard grind of campaigning is not too much a task for the President, who remains very much the consummate local politician with the knack of winning friends and influencing people.

In more ways than one then, the Uva poll is a dress rehearsal for the General elections and Presidential polls that loom ahead. Certainly, the final statistics from Uva will help the powers that be decide which of those polls take precedence

With only days to go for campaigning to end for the Uva Provincial Council elections, there is hardly any uncertainty about the outcome of the poll; nevertheless, the election would be significant for both the Government and the Opposition for a variety of reasons.

For the past two-and-half months, Sri Lankans have been rejoicing in the aftermath of the annihilation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and justifiably, President Mahinda Rajapaksa deserves much of the credit for this, in taking an unwavering stand with regard to military operations against the Tigers, in the face of fierce opposition and intimidation from the international community.

This is the first poll to be held in the afterglow of that triumph. Undoubtedly, the Alliance will expect political dividends of the military victory to accrue to its credit, and if the ground situation in Uva is any gauge at all, this will indeed happen.
The ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) has also taken the bold step of providing a political debut for the third generation of Rajapaksas at this election. Shashindra, son of elder presidential sibling Chamal, is the de facto chief ministerial candidate, and his performance in the preferences will be watched with much interest.

The younger Rajapaksa’s entry to the Moneragala district, initially, caused some concern within the Alliance ranks. Former Chief Minister Vijith Vijayamuni Soysa was known to have been unhappy at being ousted by an ‘outsider’, but the issue has now been sorted out with promises of nomination at the forthcoming General elections. Indeed, Soysa has lately been in the forefront of Shashindra Rajapaksa’s campaign.

For all the kudos the Government will get for bringing terrorism to an end in the country, the ruling party, to its credit, has not taken the election lightly. Leading from the front is no less than President Rajapaksa himself. He pitched camp in the newly opened presidential bungalow in Mahiyangana and campaigned in earnest, wooing not only the average Mahiyangana citizen by going for walkabouts early in the morning, but also inviting the local aborigine community (formerly known as ‘veddah’s) to his presidential abode.

These tactics highlight the fact that, even though he may be at the height of his popularity, the President is fully aware that fame and good fortune in politics is rather fickle and that, the UPFA needs his personal touch to succeed. Therefore, the hard grind of campaigning is not too much a task for the President, who remains very much the consummate local politician with the knack of winning friends and influencing people.

The Presidential interest in the campaign also stems from the fact that Uva has been a traditional stronghold of the United National Party (UNP) for long. In fact, there was one election where the UNP lost electorally countrywide, but retained the electoral division of Mahiyangana, leading to the pithy Sinhala comment, ‘veddah neththan reddath ne’!

The ground realities in Uva are quite different now. Some UNP political heavyweights of the region have switched allegiance to the Government, the most notable among them being R.M. Dharmadasa Banda, who crossed over to the Government ranks and received the Supplementary Crops Development portfolio in January 2006. Dharmadasa Banda’s son Harinda, is contesting the poll from the UPFA ticket.

Another offspring to raise eyebrows and capture headlines is Udith Lokubandara, son of Speaker W.J.M. Lokubandara. Lokubandara (Jnr.) was famously gifted the Haputale SLFP organiser post as a wedding present by President Mahinda Rajapaksa, and the incident triggered questions about where the loyalties of Speaker Lokubandara now rest. The UNP has proceeded to appoint another organiser for Haputale, in effect, rivalling Lokubandara (Snr.) and incidents such as this can only erode that party’s support base in the region.

Another UNP strongman of the province, Lakshman Seneviratne of Mahiyangana is under a cloud within the party for leading the rebellion against UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. The revolt has been kept under wraps for the time being, but it is no secret that there are those in the party who wish that Seneviratne and his electorate do not perform particularly well for the UNP on August 8.

Indeed for the UNP, the poll in Uva represents a penultimate chance to redeem itself in the eyes of the country as a viable Opposition. The next poll on the cards is in the Southern Province, and that is traditional Rajapaksa territory, where the party can hardly expect any gains.

The party has been making some conciliatory noises about the military victories in the North and about saluting war heroes, but that has been too little, too late. Its alienation from the electorate has been a gradual process over the past several years, hastened by the crushing of the LTTE in May. The extent of that dent in popularity will probably reveal itself on August 9.

The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) too, is facing a not dissimilar plight, and any vote with a double digit percentage will be seen as bonus by the party, even though the Moneragala district was once a strong JVP base. For the leftist party too, the Uva poll is more an exercise in damage control and saving face, rather than providing a realistic contest to the UPFA.

In more ways than one then, the Uva poll is a dress rehearsal for the bigger contests of General elections and Presidential polls that loom ahead. Certainly, the final statistics from Uva may go a long way in helping the powers that be in deciding which of those elections takes precedence.

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