And the challenger is….

Fielding Fonseka doubly beneficial For the UNP, fielding Fonseka would be doubly beneficial. It would pit a formidable opponent against President Rajapaksa. It would also save one of its own stalwarts from the embarrassment of contesting and losing a presidential election. For the JVP too, which has no realistic chance of winning a presidential poll anyway, Fonseka would provide an opportunity to say that they backed a strong contender, and avoid the ignominy of one of its own candidates receiving a dismal amount of votes. That does not imply that, in the rather hypothetical possibility of Fonseka emerging as a contestant in a presidential election, he would have it easy. In a presidential poll, every vote counts, and the minority block vote would have a significant say in pushing the winner past the finishing line. It would be fair to predict that in such a scenario, minority communities would favour President Rajapaksa to Fonseka. future events were casting their shadows with leader of the Western Peoples’ Front, Mano Ganesan announcing that he would withdraw from the UNA, if Fonseka were to become its candidate

The Provincial Council elections may have been concluded barring those in the North, and the focus of attention has now shifted to greater stakes: the presidential and general elections.
It is still likely that presidential elections would be held first, for history favours this move. On the only occasion when an incumbent President opted for a general election first was when stand-in President Dingiri Banda Wijetunge did so, and in that instance, his United National Party (UNP) was routed. President Mahinda Rajapaksa is unlikely to make the same mistake.

However, a presidential contest which was expected to be a cakewalk for the President, has now taken on a different hue, largely because of speculation about a ‘common candidate’ being floated by opposition parties.
It was the UNP-led, yet to be formalised, ‘United National Alliance’ which first mooted the move. In the initial stages, the names of ‘two Saraths’ were speculatively added to the rumour mill- those of former Chief Justice Sarath N. Silva and former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka.

The ‘appointment’ of Fonseka as Secretary to the Ministry of Sports did not help the government. It is true that, before him, another former Commander, Wasantha Karannagoda of the Navy had been appointed Secretary to the Ministry of Highways. Nevertheless, Fonseka is yet to accept his new appointment, and it only added fuel to the conjecture that there was an ever widening rift between the former Army Commander and the highest levels of government.

Last week, there was more excitement when the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) ventured into the debate. The leftist party had been fighting shy of joining the fledgling UNA or endorsing its policies. However, the JVP then announced that it would, despite its differences with the UNA, endorse Fonseka as a presidential candidate, a significant statement by any standards.

The party’s stance was that, while it may chart its own course at a general election, its actions at a presidential election would be different. It saw common ground with the UNA for this purpose, because both parties supported the abolition of the executive presidency.
Events are still unfolding in this drama, but as of now, it is still extremely premature to cast Fonseka in the role of a presidential candidate. Fonseka continues in his role as Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) and was seen at several public functions with President Mahinda Rajapaksa this week, and the body language betrayed no hint of rancour between the men of the moment.

Be that as it may, it would still be prudent to examine what gave rise to speculation that Fonseka would contest President Rajapaksa, and how viable that proposition would be.
From an opposition perspective, Fonseka would be a prize catch. That is because they realise that President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s seemingly unassailable popularity, especially in the south of the country, stems from the fact that it was he who gave staunch and unwavering political leadership to the military thrust against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

In the current political firmament, there is no ‘star’ in the opposition who could counter this, and there certainly wouldn’t be one in the major opposition party, the UNP, because that party consistently advocated a non-militaristic resolution of the conflict with the Tigers.
In such a scenario, only a person who could lay a similar- or even greater- claim to the military victory over the LTTE would be of any consequence in a contest. And, Sarath Fonseka fits the bill perfectly, because he commanded the largest force that went into combat with the Tigers and also survived an assassination attempt for good measure.

Of course, the noises made by the opposition, in support of Fonseka, does in no way indicate that Fonseka has given his assent to being a presidential contender, and as of now, it is the rumour mill that is working overtime. But what this campaign by the collective opposition also signifies is that the two major opposition parties, the UNP and the JVP, have been left with no candidates of their own, who could offer a decent fight to the President.

For the UNP, fielding Fonseka would be doubly beneficial. It would pit a formidable opponent against President Rajapaksa. It would also save one of its own stalwarts from the embarrassment of contesting a losing a presidential election.

For the JVP too, which has no realistic chance of winning a presidential poll anyway, Fonseka would provide an opportunity to say that they backed a strong contender, and avoid the ignominy of one of its own candidates receiving a dismal amount of votes.
That does not imply that, in the rather hypothetical possibility of Fonseka emerging as a contestant in a presidential election, he would have it easy. In a presidential poll, every vote counts, and the minority block vote would have a significant say in pushing the winner past the finishing line.

It would be fair to predict that in such a scenario, minority communities would favour President Rajapaksa to Fonseka. Already, coming events were casting their shadows with leader of the Western Peoples’ Front, Mano Ganesan announcing that he would withdraw from the UNA, if Fonseka were to become its candidate.
Also, while General Fonseka’s standing in the eyes of the public remains high, on account of his war hero status, it would be difficult to gauge what interpretation the average voter would give to his possible candidature. One can safely bet that, if Fonseka does contest, the fear of a military dictatorship would be raised instantly from the platforms of the ruling party.

Sri Lanka, for all its shortcomings, and despite two southern insurrections and several Eelam wars, has held on to a tradition of civilian rule for six decades. In this respect, it is similar to India, and unlike Pakistan. In such a scenario, how a military man contesting a democratic election will fare is yet to be seen in this country.
All this, however, remains speculation at best, and the most likely scenario as matters stand now is for General Fonseka to go into a quiet retirement. If that happens, both the UNP and the JVP would have the unenviable task of recruiting new contenders at very short notice, and that would be a difficult task indeed.