All for one and one for all

The UNA has been some time in the making, mooted by its chief proponent Mangala Samaraweera, leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) ‘Mahajana’ faction who has soldiered on with this concept of an alliance even in the face of considerable opposition from stalwarts of the United National Party (UNP) itself.

Samaraweera, at the launch of the UNA was to proudly proclaim that this alliance was more powerful than any that ever emerged in this country. For the moment that must remain strictly rhetoric but it is worthwhile to assess the relative strengths of this new political force.

It is an undeniable fact that the only political party within the UNA that can stand on its own is the UNP. The next most credible force is the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) although there too some doubts exist as to whether its leader Rauf Hakeem has the blessings of its entire membership to forge an alliance with opposition political forces.

Both the ‘Mahajana’ wing of the SLFP and the Mano Ganesan led Democratic Peoples’ Front (DPLF) carry some clout but their influence on a national level is negligible. Such a scenario begs the question as to why the UNP wanted to hitch its wagon to an assorted array of minute political forces when all it gets in return is a few thousand more votes-for which it may have to pay a heavy price.

There is however a harsh truth the UNP has to contend with. For a party which once boasted of being the single largest political entity in the country, its popularity has fallen to abysmal depths. Its grassroots level organisation is in disarray and the party membership is by and large a disgruntled lot. As recent provincial council election results showed, the party’s base vote has now fallen to about 20 to 25 per cent.

Uncertain of its own standing in the electorate, the UNP has now resorted to the ‘more the merrier’ policy, in the hope that having other political parties stand alongside it in its battle against the ruling party will help its cause. Hence the thinking of the party leadership to forge an alliance.

However, conspicuous by its absence in the Alliance is the other major political party in the country, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) which, given its ideological differences with the UNP, never relished the prospect of a political partnership with the right-of-centre party. Thus, while the UNA was busy announcing its arrival, the JVP was busy mobilising trade union protests in the city.

For a variety of reasons, the JVP still wishes to go it alone, despite the prospect of yet another embarrassing electoral performance which seems to be inversely related to its organisational capability and its ability to attract crowds. Therefore, the contest at a general election will be very much a battle between the UPFA and the UNA.
Judging by the political strengths of the UPFA and the UNA as they stand now, the ruling party has a clear advantage. It has many major leftist parties such as the Lanka Samasamaja Party (LSSP), the Communist Party (CP) and the Mahajana Eksath Peramuna (MEP) under its wing and also enjoys the support of other entities such as the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC) and the Thamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP).

Given the diversity of these political parties and taking into account the considerable grassroots growth of the SLFP itself in recent years, the UPFA appears to be no match for the fledgling UNA. However, there can be some confounding factors-such as having the presidential elections first.

It can be safely said that the Sri Lankan voter is extremely discriminating in the use of his franchise. Therefore, the factors influencing his decision making are vastly different in the two elections. In a presidential poll, the personality of the candidates counts a great deal while in a general election, regional issues, caste and creed considerations and party politics matter to a greater extent.

Hence, it is in a general election that the UPFA would have a clear cut advantage over the UNA. In a presidential election on the other hand, it would be more of a battle between the rival candidates rather than the parties they represent. And, judging by the recent public pronouncements of those who matter, it is very likely that a presidential poll would precede a general election.

There has been wild speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of a ‘common candidate’ coming forward to represent the UNA in the event of a presidential election. There has been even more feverish speculation as to who this ‘common candidate’ would be, but for the moment this is at best speculation and nothing more.
The political suspense has been further heightened by announcements from the JVP that it would endorse an ‘appropriate’ common candidate, if it could agree with such a candidate on the possibility of abolishing the executive presidency.

As political fever mounts more developments, some of them bizarre, are unfolding. This week itself two such events unfolded. Nandana Gunatilleke, for long a leading light of the National Freedom Front (NFF) and an able lieutenant of the more firebrand Wimal Weerawansa resigned from all posts in the Front.
Thereafter, we heard of K.N. Choksy, Finance Minister in the short-lived United National Front government and the long-standing legal eagle of the UNP publicly praising President Mahinda Rajapaksa. That in itself is no cardinal sin, but it surely set tongues wagging.

The stage is therefore dramatically being set for next week’s announcement from President Rajapaksa. The President is expected to outline his election strategy to his party members next Sunday and that will hopefully lay to rest all doubts about which elections will be held first-but it will also be the stepping stone for yet another round of feverish electioneering.