This is my Nation

For want of a challenger

NEW BATTLE LINE

Ending weeks of frenzied speculation, the Chief of Defence Staff General Sarath Fonseka tendered his resignation to President Mahinda Rajapaksa last Thursday, thus demarcating a new battle line in the political landscape.

But how does General Fonseka’s, as yet unannounced, entry into the presidential contest alter the political equation? What are the prospects of a decorated ex-soldier in a country where, for all its travails, the military has had no role in making or breaking governments? These are questions that merit discussion

Theoretically of course, there is little more to this event because General Fonseka remains Sri Lanka’s highest ranking armed forces officer until December 1, when he has requested that he be allowed to retire. As the General himself repeatedly emphasised on Thursday, at the Kelaniya Temple, he would be deciding on his future course of action only after that date.

But, only the naive and the ignorant will believe that General Fonseka will just fade away. The expectation is that he would be the much touted ‘common candidate’ at a future presidential election expected early next year.
In the lead up to General Fonseka’s resignation offer, there were several red herrings thrown about by the government and the opposition, in a bid to outsmart each other in a game of political hide and seek.

Government ministers floated a theory that the President was considering holding both the general elections- due by April 2010- and presidential elections- not due until November 2011- on the same day.
There was also speculation that, with almost everyone expecting presidential polls to be held first, given President Rajapaksa’s popularity, the ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) would do a double take and hold general elections first, thus catching the collective opposition off guard.

The opposition too, responded in kind. On Wednesday, they were imploring the General to delay his resignation, implying that, otherwise the government would change tactics. They wanted Fonseka to wait until President Rajapaksa announces his political strategy at the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) convention scheduled for today.

However, as if on cue, General Fonseka did exactly the opposite the very next day, suggesting that the opposition too was playing mind games with the ruling party.
There was also some confusion as to whether the President could virtually deprive General Fonseka an opportunity to be the common candidate, by not accepting his resignation. That would have seemed an easy way out for President Rajapaksa, but later reports suggested that the resignation would indeed be accepted.

Clearly, the opposition is overjoyed at the prospect of General Fonseka contesting. Even the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which has its own reasons to mistrust the military, couldn’t conceal its joy. “We had and still have our differences with the United National Party (UNP) and we cannot march together,” JVP leader Somawansa Amerasinghe declared, “but taking two different roads, we can arrive at the same destination.”
The ‘destination’ that Amerasinghe referred to was the abolition of the executive presidency, to which the UNP has committed itself at long last. The collective opposition was due to seek assurances from General Fonseka that he would indeed abolish the presidency, if elected, but these issues have most probably been already discussed and agreed upon in private.

The most tantalising question though is whether General Fonseka would pose a tangible threat to President Rajapaksa’s popularity. The opposition argues that this is possible, because the Southern Provincial polls demonstrated that the government’s- and perhaps to a lesser extent, the President’s- popularity is waning. They would also argue that the President’s big plus point is prosecuting the war, a credential for which General Fonseka can also stake a claim.

These are plausible hypotheses but there are other confounding factors that come into play. The minority vote which plays a crucial role in any presidential election- and more so at this election, because the North and East have been liberated- is unlikely to accrue to General Fonseka, given his ruthless persecution of the war.

Also, Fonseka the politician is an unknown entity, whereas Rajapaksa the politician is an image the entire country is familiar and comfortable with. Fonseka’s stiff manner, honed by decades in the military, is a stark contrast to the easy charm that the President exudes, and how this will play in the minds of the voter is left to be seen.

It must be also noted that President Rajapaksa has the trimmings of State power, as well the grassroots party machinery of the SLFP at his disposal. Fonseka will have to rely on his political caretakers, the newly formed United National Alliance (UNA) and the JVP to do his politicking for him.

It is not that President Rajapaksa will not have his share of problems, if and when General Fonseka decides to contest. Had, for example, Ranil Wickremesinghe contested instead, it would have been so easy to paint Wickremesinghe as the ‘Green Tiger’, and romp home defeating him twice over.
Now that Fonseka is in the fray, the President and his campaign managers would have to be extremely careful in what they say, lest they be accused of tarnishing the good name of a war hero.

Shades of this was seen when General Fonseka visited the Kelaniya Temple, when a well-known ill-mannered politician of the area is supposed to have instigated a crowd to chant slogans against the General. Such tactics could easily boomerang on the ruling party and the President, if Fonseka is a contestant.

From an opposition perspective though, General Fonseka is a godsend. He has spared both the UNP and the JVP the prospect of contesting the presidential election and being rewarded with an embarrassing defeat at the hands of President Rajapaksa. These two parties, therefore, have nothing to lose and everything to gain by endorsing General Fonseka.

However, it is somewhat sad to see two gentlemen, who successfully led the nation’s battle against terrorism, sulk in two opposing corners of the political arena, when they should have stood as one to win the peace, now that they have won the war. But then, politics does make for strange bedfellows.