A battle of titanic proportions

The President’s decision though widely expected, was not without its anxious moments. With speculation spiralling about General Fonseka’s imminent entry into the contest, President Rajapaksa was under pressure from some sections of his government to reconsider his decision and have a general election first instead.
The thinking was that the General’s foray into politics, supported by the collective Opposition, would be a more potent threat to the President’s re-election prospects than any other candidate fielded by either the United National Party (UNP) or the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). And having the Presidential Polls first, would cost the President a period of his tenure of office anyway.

However, after weighing the pros and cons in this conundrum, the President has decided to bite the bullet and opt for a Presidential Poll. That certainly was the wish of the vast majority of party faithfuls who obviously wanted to cash in on the domino effect of a Presidential election victory that they were anticipating.

On the other hand, the formal entry of General Sarath Fonseka is expected to be announced today. But he has already received endorsements from the UNP, the JVP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Mahajana) faction. Even though the latter two ratifications were easily obtained, endorsement from the UNP did have its stumbling blocks, and Thursday’s Working Committee meeting was stormy indeed.

It was well known that a section of the UNP was reluctant to commit towards the former Chief of Defence Staff. This was because they believed that the UNP as the premier opposition party in the country, should field its own candidate regardless of the prospects in store.

Not to do so would be tantamount to abdicating its responsibility to the electorate and diminish its standing in the eyes of the voters, which could further erode the party’s base vote which now stood at around twenty to twenty five per cent, this faction argued.

Others who opposed endorsing Fonseka’s candidature had their eyes on the usual suspect: UNP and Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. They saw a familiar ploy in Wickremesinghe’s endorsement of Fonseka; the UNP leader was avoiding contesting a third Presidential Poll which he was likely to lose, and thereby buying time so he could live to fight another day, this faction claimed.

Spanner
Another potential spanner in the works was S.B. Dissanayake. It was no secret that Dissanayake harboured ambitions of contesting the election himself if Wickremasinghe declined, and Dissanayake’s public statements were such that at times, they were thinly veiled criticisms of General Fonseka. Also there was speculation that the former General Secretary of the SLFP was planning a return to that party, being invited by his old friend Mahinda Rajapaksa. At long last, Dissanayake too threw in his lot with Fonseka, apparently after a frank discussion with the General.

Over-riding all this was another issue: that of getting the UNP and the JVP to agree on matters that were crucial if they were to jointly sponsor Fonseka. These two parties have never been comfortable bedfellows even in the fickle world of politics, and there were many matters on which they agreed to disagree.
There was also a possible scenario where a general election would be called while the Presidential Poll campaign was on, in which case the UNP and the JVP would have to go their separate ways. However, with both parties equally intent on opposing President Rajapaksa, an agreement was arrived at.

Diplomacy
That General Fonseka was able to overcome all these political wheels within wheels, and emerge as the so-called ‘common candidate’ is a tribute to the silent diplomacy that went on behind the scenes in the past few weeks. More of that may be required in the coming weeks.
General Fonseka’s candidacy has certainly set the stage for a political battle of titanic proportions, because the expectation is that the majority community vote hitherto expected to accrue to Rajapaksa, because of his leadership in the war effort, would now be split.

However, several imponderables remain. The UNP and the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) have been traditional custodians of the votes of the minority communities. But whether they can deliver these votes to the General, who is seen by these communities as the man who ruthlessly prosecuted the war to a finish, remains to be seen.

Also General Fonseka, decorated military hero though he is, is untested in the murky waters of local politics. This could be an advantage because he is untainted by allegations of nepotism, corruption and inefficiency. Yet he will be pitted against a President who entered Parliament at the age of twenty four, and has been a seasoned political animal in the forty years that have lapsed since then.

How the average voter will respond to the prospect of a military man trying to take over the reins of a country which for all its travails, never experienced military rule, is yet another uncertainty that will cloud the campaign.
From the perspective of the ruling United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA), some problems emerge with General Fonseka entering the contest. The well-oiled UPFA propaganda machinery which has a tendency to go into overdrive, will have to be careful or they could well be accused of tarnishing the reputation of a war hero, and that is a tactic that can easily boomerang on the President.

Already the battle appears to have become bitter, with haggling over the General’s security entitlements and his contingent of vehicles. Indications are that once the propaganda war takes off in earnest, such accusations and counter accusations will intensify.
An enthralling election is certainly in the making. However, we must hope for the nation’s sake, that the contest will be cleanly fought. After all, now that the war is over, it is about time that democracy re-asserts itself in Sri Lankan society.