China's population woes deepen as marriage registrations tumble

China is on track to post its lowest number of marriage registrations since 1980 this year, with an estimate from a leading demographer suggesting as few as 6 million couples would tie the knot, prompting local governments to hand out cash incentives.

In the first nine months of the year, 4.75 million couples registered a marriage, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, representing a 16.6 percent drop compared to the same period in 2023.

Only 1.32 million marriages were registered in the third quarter, with the figure dropping by more than 25 percent from a year earlier, marking the lowest quarterly reading since 2008.

And based on the proportion of the quarterly numbers released on Friday to the annual total, China could see between 6.01 million to 6.59 million marriage registrations this year, according to an estimate from independent demographer He Yafu.

The ceiling would be lower than the 6.83 million new marriages recorded in 2022, while it would also be lower than the 7.2 million registered in 1980.

China's low marriage and birthrates, coupled with an overall population decline, have emerged as critical challenges weighing on sluggish economic growth, presenting one of the biggest dilemmas that could hinder long-term development and labor market stability.

And amid a broader demographic crisis, Luliang city in the central Shanxi province became the third city to offer cash rewards to promote marriage on top of nationwide measures.

Starting next year, couples registering their first marriage in Luliang would receive a 1,500 yuan ($211) cash reward, as long as the bride is aged 35 or younger, the city's Municipal Civil Affairs Bureau said on its official WeChat social media account last week.

"Although the amount isn't much, it still holds symbolic value in encouraging young people to marry," said independent demographer He.

He added that to boost the birth rate in China, it was essential to raise the marriage rate.

The local government has also introduced new measures to encourage childbirth, offering subsidies of 8,000 yuan for families with three children, 5,000 yuan for those with two, and 1,000 yuan for families with one child.

Compared to Western countries, where as much as over 60 percent of births could occur outside marriage, China's societal norms remain more conservative, with most children born within wedlock.

Although official statistics are unavailable, demographers estimate the birthrate — the number of births per 1,000 people — in China is similar to its neighbors Japan and South Korea, at around 2.5.

Since peaking at 13.47 million couples in 2013, China's marriage rate had declined for nine consecutive years, reaching a record low in 2022.

In 2023, marriage registrations in China reached 7.68 million, marking an increase of 845,000 couples, with the 12.36 percent rise from 2022 the first rebound in nearly a decade. The figure also surpassed the number of marriages in 2021.

Last year, China's population dropped for the second year in a row to 1.4 billion, representing a decline of over 2 million. Only 9 million births were reported in China in 2023, the lowest figure since records started in 1949.

National and local governments have rolled out a raft of pronatalist policies, including cash subsidies, extended maternity and paternity leave, tax breaks and housing incentives for families with multiple children.

But demographers have argued that the policies have failed to address deeper issues, such as the high cost of living, insufficient childcare support and persistent gender inequality, and have had a limited impact.

In April last year, Shangyu district in the eastern city of Shaoxing in Zhejiang province offered 1,000 yuan ($140) to every couple registering to marry.

In August 2023, Changshan county in Quzhou city, also in Zhejiang province, introduced a policy offering a 1,000 yuan reward for couples registering their first marriage where the bride was 25 years old or younger, and provided at least one partner held residency in Changshan.

Read the full story at SCMP.