Don't expect US to scale back its Asia-Pacific military presence, analysts say

The U.S. looks set to maintain rather than reduce its military presence in the Asia-Pacific under Donald Trump, given the persistent tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, according to analysts at a leading security forum in Beijing.

As part of a panel discussion at Tsinghua University's International Security and Strategy Forum on Friday, Sun Yun, director of the Stimson Centre's China programme, said she did not see that the U.S. would "cede its presence" in the Asia-Pacific.

"[When] we look at the Asia-Pacific, especially [the] West Pacific, where China traditionally sees as this is my neighbourhood ... I don't see that the U.S. will in any way concede or cede its presence in the region," she said.

"We can argue who's really responsible for the heated tension in the South China Sea that has [been for] three, four years under the Biden administration. But I don't see any intention on the U.S. side to cede influence, to cede presence in this region."

China has claims over almost all the South China Sea which are contested by various countries. In the past year, the disputes with Manila have escalated into multiple clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

China has accused the United States of supporting the Philippines in these disputes to undermine regional stability, and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been vocal about Washington's "ironclad" commitment to defending its treaty ally.

The U.S. and Philippines have regularly conducted joint patrols and training in the South China Sea, with the latest held between two special operations units in early March.

But the Trump administration has yet to detail its policy on the contested waters, raising the possibility of a rollback in the U.S.' presence.

However, Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing based think tank, said the U.S. would try to maintain its deployments in the region, despite challenges such as a declining number of warships, and operations elsewhere.

Hu said the U.S. military deployment in the region was "approaching a peak" and the White House would try to keep those numbers stable.

"I think the U.S. military policy is much more consistent compared with the U.S.' political and economic policies," he told another panel discussion on Friday.

"According to the data, I think the U.S. forces movements in this area are approaching the peak. It means that many of the operations will be kept at a very stable level, not increased anymore."

In the meantime, the Philippines is stepping up efforts with regional partners to counterbalance China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Manila said this week that it wanted to expand the "Squad" alliance — an informal security partnership between the Philippines, the U.S., Japan, and Australia — to include India and South Korea.

But Michael Vatikiotis, a senior adviser at the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, said many countries in Southeast Asia would welcome a reduction of tension.

"They don't want either the United States or China to put pressure on them," Vatikiotis said.

He said countries did not want to be forced to choose sides between the U.S., and China, and one way of easing that pressure could be with less aggressive U.S. freedom navigation operations in the region.

"It's clear that in the South China Sea, in the last two or three years, the increased U.S. military presence and the Philippines has made the situation there much more fragile and brought the two countries closer to confrontation," Vatikiotis said.

"So I think a relaxing of that doesn't have to necessarily be that the U.S. stops patrolling the region, but that the [freedom of navigation operations] become less aggressive, that they are declared and it gives China more comfort when it comes to the continued presence of the U.S. in the region."

"So I think it's not about ceding necessarily. It's more about normalising."

Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua's Centre for International Security and Strategy, suggested there was also room for movement around Taiwan.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the U.S., do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arm Taiwan.

Earlier this month, Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te announced a new set of new national security policies, citing threats from the mainland and calling Beijing a "hostile foreign force."

In the aftermath, the People's Liberation Army stepped up its presence in the Taiwan Strait, sending 59 aircraft and nine warships around the self-ruled island on Monday, according to the island's defense ministry. The scale of the deployment has not been seen since October.

Zhou said the U.S. and China could discuss issues like U.S. troop training and the type of arms sales to Taiwan.

"There are a lot of things that China and the U.S. could talk about [over the Taiwan issue]," Zhou said.

But there was a bottom line: the reunification issue was not a matter for trade-offs.

Read the full story at SCMP.