NCAA Tournament berth for Gators requires miraculous SEC Tournament run

GAINESVILLE — An NCAA Tournament bid was the stated goal.

Now it’s a prayer for Florida first-year coach Todd Golden.

The Gators (16-15) are the No. 8 seed and a game above .500 entering Thursday’s second-round matchup against No. 9 Mississippi State (20-11). A trip to the Big Dance would require four wins in four days.

Winners of two straight, Florida does have a modicum of momentum but pretty much everything else working against the Gators.

[ Dr. Phillips alum Riley Kugel impresses John Calipari in UF’s loss to Kentucky ]

Golden sounded less than optimistic Tuesday.

“My whole deal is do everything we can to win and then figure it out,” he said.

Florida will play is sixth game without injured big man Colin Castleton, whom coaches named Monday to their first-team All-SEC and All-Defensive teams. After three straight losses minus its leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker, the Gators beat Georgia and LSU, led by emerging freshman sensation Riley Kugel of Orlando’s Dr. Phillips.

Florida freshman Riley Kugel of Orlando shoots over LSU's Derek Fountain en route to 21 points in a win last weekend in Gainesville. (James Gilbert / Getty Images)

Kugel’s 17-point second half against the Tigers gave him 21 points, his third 20-point game in four outings and eighth consecutive double-digit scoring performance.

The 6-foot-5, 207-pound Kugel, a member of the SEC’s All-Freshman team, has established himself as a building block for Golden’s second season. Yet the transfer portal and one-time transfer waiver, along with name, image and likeness legislation, give promising players options.

Already facing a significant roster overhaul this offseason, Golden said following the LSU game he’s confident Kugel will remain in the fold.

“Having to take on more offensive responsibility with Colin being out he’s done an incredible job with it, getting incredibly efficient, really effective,” Golden said.

Who will join Kugel on the 2022-23 roster will play out during the coming weeks and months.

Sophomore Will Richard is another top priority. The 6-foot-5 wing has 44 points the past two games, highlighted by 8-of-14 shooting from 3-point range, but has been inconsistent and targeted by opposing defenses as Florida’s top long-range shooting threat.

Denzel Aberdeen, a 6-foot-4 point guard who was with Kugel on Dr. Phillips’ 2021 7A state title team, has played just 32 minutes this season. He has potential.

Possible other candidates to return include 6-6 sophomore wing Kowacie Reeves, 6-9 sophomore forward Alex Fudge, 6-10 freshman center Aleks Szymczyk, 6-foot junior point guard Trey Bonham and 6-5 junior guard Niels Lane.

Florida coach Todd Golden directs his team from the sideline during an 85-64 loss at Arkansas on Feb. 18. (Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)

Castleton, who came back for a fifth season, guards Kyle Lofton and Myreon Jones, forward CJ Felder and center Jason Jitoboh are seniors.

Reeves, Fudge and Szymczyk offer the most upside while Bonham’s declining role and Lane’s limited one suggest the two guards might not fit into Golden’s long-term plan.

But Reeves also overshadows his athletic ability with poor shot selection, while the high-flying Fudge lacks strength and offensive consistency. The 240-pound Szymczyk of Germany is raw but can run the floor and gives effort.

An unlikely postseason run was Golden’s focus Thursday before he begins his roster remake.

The Gators beat Mississippi State 61-59 Jan. 21 on the road despite a so-so night from Castleton (13 points, 4 rebounds, 2 blocks). Five other players had at least 6 points, including 12 by Richards, while Florida’s defense limited the Bulldogs to 39.3% shooting, including just 23.5% from 3-point range.

Golden’s squad relied on defense during its best stretch of basketball, including wins in 5 of 6 SEC games in January. But the 6-foot-11 Castleton anchored the back end and cleaned up mistakes around the basket, tallying 78 blocks in 26 games before breaking his hand Feb. 15 against Ole Miss.

“We didn’t guard well at all for the first three games without Colin,” Golden said. “The last couple of games we’ve kind of figured out a little bit better how to survive without him.”

Yet, Georgia and LSU are a combined 8-28 in SEC play.

Florida guard Riley Kugel celebrates a 3-pointer against Kentucky during a Feb. 22 game in Gainesville. (Alan Youngblood/AP)

Mississippi State is a much better team with more to play for than the Gators. The Bulldogs. who Kugel originally committed to before a coaching change led to his switch to Florida, sit No. 46 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, a key tool on Selection Sunday, and are 7-10 against Quad 1 and 2 teams.

Florida is 3-14.

“Mississippi State, from what we’ve seen, is kind of a last-four-in type team,” Golden said of the NCAA’s 68-term format. “They would feel more comfortable with a win against us. Unfortunately, we’re in a role of spoiler where we’re hopefully going to make it a long couple of days for them.”

The Gators’ first SEC Tournament title since a 2014 Final Four run would be the ultimate Cinderella story for a team with a single three-game winning streak in early January.

A win Thursday, though, would likely assure an NIT invitation. Two teams sitting one game above .500 , Vanderbilt and Alcorn State, received 2022 bids.

Kugel is not giving up on his NCAA dreams just yet.

“We could definitely make a run in this tournament,” he said. “There is no reason why we shouldn’t have any doubts of not winning this.”

This article first appeared on OrlandoSentinel.com. Email Edgar Thompson at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @osgators.