In the coming weeks, Stormont will face it's biggest challenge as MLAs are asked to give their democratic consent to the continued application of core elements of the Protocol and Windsor Framework.
The 'democratic consent mechanism' is an important feature of the Northern Ireland Protocol and allows MLAs to choose if they wish to continue to implement Articles 5 to 10 of the Protocol/Windsor Framework which concerns the free movement of goods on the island of Ireland and the requirement for post-Brexit customs checks on goods entering NI including those from Great Britain.
Under the regulations set out in the Windsor Framework, MLAs will have the opportunity to vote on the continued implementation of Articles 5 to 10 every four or eight years. If consent is given by a simple majority of 50+1% of the MLAs who vote, then the next democratic consent motion will come before the Assembly in four years, however, if the motion were to receive cross-community consent where a majority of both unionist and nationalist MLAs support the motion then it would not return to the Assembly for another eight years.
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Given the current composition of the Assembly, it is likely that the motion will receive a simple majority when MLAs vote. We can safely assume that Alliance, the SDLP and Sinn Féin will all vote in favour of the motion and while People Before Profit have historically supported Brexit in the past, taking account of their positions since, we can also assume that Gerry Carroll will fall into line and vote in favour of the motion meaning that it would pass by at least 59 per cent.
We know that the DUP and TUV will vote against, meaning that there will be at least 30 per cent of MLAs against, and at the time of writing, the UUP and independent unionist MLA Claire Sugden have yet to declare how they would vote, which means that there is 11 per cent of votes still unknown.
In the likely event that consent is granted via a simple majority, then the UK Government will commission an independent review of how the Protocol and Windsor Framework are working and the implications of either how choosing to continue or terminate alignment will impact on the social, economic and political life in Northern Ireland. This review will be tasked with making recommendations on any new arrangements it believes could command cross-community support and will involve consultation with political parties, businesses, civic society groups, representative organisations and trade unions, which must be completed by the end of July 2025.
In the event that MLAs were to vote against the democratic consent motion, then from 1 January 2027, Northern Ireland would cease to remain part of the EU's customs territory and its internal market for goods, meaning that there would be no legal basis for the free movement of goods across the Irish border and this could also have implications for the single electricity market on the island of Ireland which would lead to even greater uncertainty.
Ultimately, this will be a debate that transcends the technicalities of regulatory alignment or the benefits of a single electricity market and will come down to issues of identity and Northern Ireland's place within the UK and EU.
For nationalists and those non-aligned MLAs, a vote in favour of consent will be a vote for stability and a pragmatic approach to the post-Brexit realities on the island of Ireland. However, for unionists, it will be viewed as a vote on the region's sovereignty and its place within Great Britain.
However, withholding consent would not be the antidote to all of the problems facing unionism post-Brexit and disapplying the regulations contained within the protocol would simply force the UK and EU back around the table in an attempt to solve the issue of how they will avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland and the consequences that would entail.
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