Until recently, the ground war in Ukraine seemed to have turned in Vladimir Putin’s favor. Despite some real Ukrainian success stories—their use of drones, for example, to threaten the Russian navy of oil industry—on the front lines Russia has launched a series of offensives to push the defenders back. While not catastrophic for Ukraine, they made the prospect of recapturing occupied territory any time soon that much slimmer.
Then, in early August, Kyiv’s forces broke through Russian defensive lines in a completely unexpected direction: over the border with Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian forces rapidly moved into Kursk, seizing several towns and key roads. Initially, observers thought it might be a small or temporary raid, like those conducted by Ukraine-aligned paramilitary groups last year. Now, however, Ukrainian forces likely hold more than a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, have taken large numbers of prisoners, and seem more interested in consolidating their gains than disappearing back into Ukraine.
Why would Ukraine launch an offensive into Russia itself? After all, Kyiv’s main goals are to ward off Russia’s offensives and try to reclaim as much Ukrainian territory as possible. But the offensive into Kursk offers several clear opportunities for Ukraine and headaches for a shocked Putin and his commanders.