Watching 4 waves in the tropics

ORLANDO, Fla. – The Atlantic Basin holds four tropical waves at the moment. None, right now, are threats to Central Florida.

Climatologically speaking, it’s expected for the tropics to get busy during the end of August leading to the peak of hurricane season, which is September 10.

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Starting off with tropical wave one, it’s near the northwestern Bahamas and is expected to move into the Gulf in a few days. The latest model information shows that it will try to organize some, potentially becoming a tropical depression before reaching the eastern Gulf.

In the highlighted area, there is a 50% chance for tropical development in the next seven days. Models could be underestimating how fast it could develop due to the Gulf water temperatures being above average.

An area of high pressure is expected to expand northwest of Florida in the next few days and it’ll act as a steering factor. Due to this setup, this tropical wave will stay well south of Central Florida.

Rain chances are expected to increase today and tomorrow over South Florida. Regardless of development, long-range models show that south and coastal Texas could see impacts later this week

Tropical wave two (Invest 90L) is showing signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance for tropical formation in the next seven days to 40%. It’ll bring rain and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday, then move into the Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Tropical models suggest that it will continue to move westward and eventually curve to the north later this week. A tropical depression could form early this week. No impacts to Florida as of the latest update.

Tropical wave three (Invest 99L) has the lowest chance for development in the next two to seven days. It’s interacting with dry air and wind shear. Model data keeps it over the central Atlantic Basin as it slowly turns to the north away from the Caribbean.

Tropical wave four (Invest 98L) looking better organized on satellite than the other waves. The NHC has highlighted a 70% chance in the next two to seven days for development. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend, but it’ll be short lived. Atmospheric conditions will become hostile as it moves to the north and, eventually, upper-level winds will shred it.

The next name on the list is Emily.

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