What’s Working: Colorado’s labor force expanded as job growth slowed

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Workers toil to clear snow from Larimer Square on Feb. 22, 2022, in Denver. (David Zalubowski, Associated Press)

Quick links: Colorado’s job undercount | Unemployment rates around the state | Starbucks union woes

As the year winds down, pandemic disruption continues to linger in the November job numbers with employers shedding 700 nonfarm jobs, according to the latest Colorado jobs update.

Without the growth in government and leisure and hospitality — areas that took longer to recover from pandemic job loss — the overall loss would have been much greater. In the private sector, industries like manufacturing, trade and transportation added to the loss of 2,100 jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But ask economists at the state’s Department of Labor and Employment and they’ll say just wait a bit. The federal data is often revised because it’s based on surveys by employers. Some employers respond late, especially during the busy ski season or holiday period when they tend to other priorities. Plus, it’s a small sample so state economists look to revisions and a more comprehensive survey that is released months later.

Expect higher job growth for Colorado, said Monicque Aragon, a senior economist with the department of labor.

“Over the year job growth in current job estimates for Colorado in November was around 1.1%, lagging the US rate of 1.8%,” Aragon said in an email. “We anticipate that this rate will be improved (closer to somewhere around 2.4%) once we undergo our annual revisions process early next year.”

Expected change: 69,500 more jobs

The monthly jobs data from the BLS has also seen a decline in survey responses in the past decade. The Current Employment Statistics, which is a survey about 122,000 businesses and government agencies each month, is down to a 41.8% response rate, as of October, compared with 62% in October 2013, as seen in this chart:

That’s why state economists prefer the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is more comprehensive but comes out several months later. According to revisions made so far this year, Colorado has added 69,500 more jobs than previously announced during the first half of the year.

Data that gets revised months later can drive economists bonkers, though. Especially when revisions have been as drastic as this year, said Gary Horvath, an economist at Cber.co in Broomfield.

“The revisions for the first quarter were 27,000 and revisions for the second quarter were 40,000 or something like that,” Horvath said. “Normally, those revisions are five or 6,000 a month.”

Seasonal adjustment calculations got especially messed up in the pandemic when the state lost more than 350,000 jobs in two months. And different economic agencies deal with it in different ways, which could impact policy for those figuring out the state budget.

“I complain about it because it’s hard for me to understand. But they’re the ones who really have a right to complain because they have a lot on the line,” Horvath said.

Colorado’s private employers shed 2,100 jobs in November. But thanks to a gain of 1,400 jobs by the government sector, the state’s overall job loss was 700 for the month.

But Horvath’s take on the month’s job report is more about what’s happening among private companies. While the number of new jobs in the private sector is up for the year, jobs declined by 2,100 in November.

“That’s concerning to me because it basically shows that for the second half of the year, it’s negative,” he said. “The private sector growth has been stagnant.”

➔ RELATED: Colorado’s Joint Budget Committee reviews latest quarterly revenue forecasts, with a boost from property taxes. But Sun reporter Brian Eason writes that may not last. >> Read

More on jobs: Unemployment rate stays at 3.3%

Since people can have more than one job, the state also looks at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Household Survey, which measures people. Unlike the business establishment survey, this counts all Coloradans 16 and older who work, are unemployed, are self-employed, and work in farm and agriculture industries.

That number grew by 2,700 in November for a total Colorado labor force of 3,249,700. Of those, 107,900 were unemployed, up 2,700 from October and putting Colorado’s unemployment rate at 3.3% in November. That was the same as October but up from the November 2022 rate of 2.8%. The state is right in the middle of the U.S. for seasonally adjusted unemployment rates. The nation’s unemployment rate was 3.7%.

Unemployment rates (unadjusted) from around the state:

Highest: San Miguel, at 5.5% Lowest: Jackson County, at 1.6% Highest metro: Pueblo, at 4.2% Lowest metro: Boulder and Fort Collins tied at 2.8%

➔ See Colorado’s monthly job data for November

Sun economy stories you may have missed

➔ What labor shortage? The talent shortage in the tech industry may be a problem of its own making, especially when newly trained tech workers can’t find jobs. Activate Work founder Helen Young Hayes blames outdated hiring practices, among other reasons. >> Read

➔ Colorado Springs Independent ceases publication. For three decades, the progressive weekly provided residents with an alternate source of news from Colorado Springs’ daily newspaper, The Gazette. Sun reporter Olivia Prentzel reports on what happened. >> Read

➔ Here’s why beef prices are up: Production costs. Since 2018, the cost of beef has risen 28% at retail — and ranchers are feeling the pinch from all sides, reports Sun reporter Tracy Ross. >> Read

Catch up with The Sun’s cost of living series: The High Cost of Colorado

Other working bits

Denver’s 16th and Tremont Starbucks is seen on March 4, 2022, the metro’s second location to independently unionize this year. (Olivia Sun, The Colorado Sun via Report for America)

➔ Judge: Starbucks must offer job back to fired Colorado worker. In a decision Tuesday, federal administrative law judge Ira Sandron said the coffee retailer “engaged in certain unfair labor practices” and must offer Alendra Harris her job back with full payment of any lost earnings. Harris was fired Nov. 18 from her role as a shift supervisor at the Superior location, the first in the state to unionize. Sandron’s decision heads for adoption of the full labor board.

In an email to The Colorado Sun, Starbucks said it disagreed with the judge and that the firing was due to policy violations. “We firmly disagree with the administrative law judge’s recommendations and intend to file exceptions — or an appeal — in this matter,” a Starbucks spokesperson wrote. “It was not in retaliation for their participation in, or support of, any concerted union activities.” >> Read decision

Earlier: Federal regulators want Starbucks to reopen 23 stores closed for union organizing, including one in Colorado Springs. Starbucks told The New York Times it “opened hundreds of new stores last year and closed more than 100, of which about 3 percent were unionized.” Starbucks also created a page online to explain its position. >> KOAA News5, New York Times

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➔ USDA seeks 2 climate change fellows for Colorado. As part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Climate Change Fellows Program, the agency is looking for 40 people, including two who will be based in Colorado, to help find solutions to the climate crisis as it impacts farmers, ranchers and producers. The two-year appointments will be funded by the Inflation Reduction Act. >> Apply

➔ Colorado’s plastic bag ban starts Jan. 1. You may already be used to bringing your own bags to the grocery store or paying for one, but the 2021 law banning plastic bags goes into effect Jan. 1 for large stores in Colorado. You can still request a bag though, for 10 cents or more, but it can no longer be plastic. The ban on polystyrene to-go containers (ie: Styrofoam) at restaurants and other food establishments also starts on the same day. >> Earlier Sun story

Thanks for sticking with me for this week’s report. Remember to check out The Sun’s daily coverage online. As always, share your 2 cents on how the economy is keeping you down or helping you up at cosun.co/heyww. ~ tamara

Miss a column? Catch up:

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What’s Working is a Colorado Sun column about surviving in today’s economy. Email [email protected] with stories, tips or questions. Read the archive, ask a question at cosun.co/heyww and don’t miss the next one by signing up at coloradosun.com/getww.

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